What is happening?
10-year 5.10% High 97th percentile of 505 sessions; highest since Oct 14, 2026. As of Oct 15, 2026. Calculation
Over the last 5 sessions, yields were mixed: 5-year, 7-year, 10-year, and 30-year fell; 2-year was unchanged. The largest move was the 30-year (−24 bp). The 2-year to 30-year spread flattened by 24 bp. Calculation
What could explain it?
Sessions Oct 8 to Oct 15. Each candidate is credited with the part of each day's 10-year move that its mechanism fits; the rest is unexplained. Corporate deals are checked against the rate-lock pattern: yields rise before pricing, led by the long end, and the long end reverses after.
Best potential reason: CPI, about 1% of the window's 10-year movement (0.2 of 22 bp). A minority of the movement fits it. Next: Lennar Corp /New/ notes ($0.6B) (about 1%). 98% has no candidate. Inference
Share of the 10-year's total movement (22 bp of session-by-session moves, Oct 8 to Oct 15) assigned to each candidate by the formula below.
Why CPI?
It ranks first because it was credited the most basis points (0.2 of 22 bp). The score rewards three things: how much this kind of event has moved the 10-year in past data (the prior), whether the day's curve pattern matches its mechanism (the fit), and how big the move was. Calculation
- Oct 14: the 10-year moved −2 bp (2-year +3 bp, 30-year −4 bp, so the long end led). Weight = prior 0.11 × fit 1: breakevens carried at least a third of the move or the short end led, as inflation news usually does. It shared the day with 1 other candidate and received 0.2 bp.
History: on 16 CPI days (days with no other scheduled event), the 10-year typically moved 4.8 bp, against 4.5 bp on ordinary days. That puts the share of such a day's move that comes from the event at about 11% (90% range −90% to 48%), which is its prior. That range includes zero, so these days are not clearly different from ordinary days.
How it moves yields. Inflation reports change two things at once: how much inflation investors expect (the breakeven) and how high they expect the Fed to keep rates. A hotter reading raises both, so yields rise and bond prices fall, because a fixed coupon buys less when prices rise faster. A cooler reading does the reverse. Mechanism
What we don't know. Unknown: This page does not store the report's numbers or what forecasters expected, so it cannot say whether the report was strong or weak. The direction is read from the market's reaction, not from the data, which makes the story consistent rather than proven.
Higher yields and lower bond prices are the same thing seen from two sides. A price drop does not by itself show that investors sold: prices can reset on news with little trading.
Why Lennar Corp /New/ notes ($0.6B)?
It ranks second with 0.1 of 22 bp. Calculation
- Oct 14: the 10-year moved −2 bp (2-year +3 bp, 30-year −4 bp, so the long end led). Weight = prior 0.014 × fit 1: a long-end-led fall is the hedging pattern. It shared the day with 1 other candidate and received 0.0 bp.
- Oct 15: the 10-year moved −9 bp (2-year −5 bp, 30-year −9 bp, so the long end led). Weight = prior 0.014 × fit 1: a long-end-led fall is the hedging pattern. No other candidate fit that day; it received 0.1 bp and the other 8.9 bp is unexplained.
The deal's prior (0.014) is assumed, not measured: its size in 10-year terms divided by $20B, capped at the strongest measured event (0.54). There are not yet enough dated deals to measure how much deals move yields.
How it moves yields. When a company sells a large amount of fixed-rate bonds, it or its banks often lock in the Treasury rate between announcement and pricing by selling Treasuries or using swaps. That hedging can push yields up, mostly at the long maturities being hedged. After pricing the hedges are lifted, which can push those yields back down. Mechanism
What we don't know. Unknown: Hedge trades are not reported publicly, so a deal can be consistent with hedging but never confirmed.
CPI 1% · 2 of 3 checks
Economic release on Oct 14, 2026.
- ✓ Timing: released Oct 14, inside the window
- ✗ Biggest move of the window on release day: 10-year −2 bp that day
- ✓ Breakevens or the short end moved: breakeven +2 bp of a −2 bp 10-year move; curve led by long end
Mechanism Inflation news reprices inflation compensation and expected policy.
Lennar Corp /New/ notes ($0.6B) 1% · 2 of 6 checks
launched Oct 13; priced Oct 13; notes expected to settle Oct 15 (not confirmed). Sources: SEC filing (FWP)
- ✓ Timing: priced Oct 13, within the last 10 sessions
- ✗ 10-year rose before pricing: −3 bp from Oct 9 (close before launch) to pricing day
- ✗ Long end led the rise: 30-year −4 bp vs 2-year −1 bp over the same sessions
- ✓ Long-end reversal after pricing: next session (Oct 14): 30-year −4 bp, 2-year +3 bp
- ✗ Investment-grade spreads widened around pricing: +1 bp from Oct 9 to Oct 14; a usual move over 3 sessions is about ±2.3 bp. This is the whole investment-grade market, so it reflects all new supply and news those days, not this deal alone
- ✗ Large in 10-year terms: about $0.3B of 10-year Treasuries; DV01 about $0.2M per bp
Mechanism Dealers or issuers may hedge rate risk with Treasuries before pricing and unwind after.
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. notes ($0.7B) 0% · 3 of 6 checks
launched Oct 9; priced Oct 9. Sources: SEC filing (8-K)
- ✓ Timing: priced Oct 9, within the last 10 sessions
- ✓ 10-year rose before pricing: +2 bp from Oct 8 (close before launch) to pricing day
- ✗ Long end led the rise: 30-year 0 bp vs 2-year +5 bp over the same sessions
- ✓ Long-end reversal after pricing: next session (Oct 13): 30-year −4 bp, 2-year −1 bp
- ✗ Investment-grade spreads widened around pricing: +1 bp from Oct 8 to Oct 13; a usual move over 3 sessions is about ±2.3 bp. This is the whole investment-grade market, so it reflects all new supply and news those days, not this deal alone
- ✗ Large in 10-year terms: about $0.5B of 10-year Treasuries; DV01 about $0.4M per bp
Mechanism Dealers or issuers may hedge rate risk with Treasuries before pricing and unwind after.
PPI 0% · 3 of 3 checks
Economic release on Oct 15, 2026.
- ✓ Timing: released Oct 15, inside the window
- ✓ Biggest move of the window on release day: 10-year −9 bp that day
- ✓ Breakevens or the short end moved: breakeven −3 bp of a −9 bp 10-year move; curve led by long end
Mechanism Inflation news reprices inflation compensation and expected policy.
Retail sales 0% · 2 of 3 checks
Economic release on Oct 15, 2026.
- ✓ Timing: released Oct 15, inside the window
- ✓ Biggest move of the window on release day: 10-year −9 bp that day
- ✗ Short end led the move: curve led by long end (2-year −5 bp)
Mechanism
Jobless claims 0% · 2 of 3 checks
Economic release on Oct 15, 2026.
- ✓ Timing: released Oct 15, inside the window
- ✓ Biggest move of the window on release day: 10-year −9 bp that day
- ✗ Short end led the move: curve led by long end (2-year −5 bp)
Mechanism Labor data reprice the expected path of policy rates.
5 more candidates in the window were credited with no movement.
Where the weights come from (measured)
Each event type's prior is measured from Oct 8, 2024 to Oct 7, 2026, 499 sessions, before the window being explained. Ordinary days (no scheduled event, 228 of them) moved the 10-year about 4.5 bp on a typical day. The prior is the share of an event day's movement that ordinary days do not have. Calculation
| Event | Days | Move, bp | Prior | 90% range | Clear? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jobs report | 17 | 6.7 | 0.54 | 21% to 70% | Yes |
| FOMC decision | 10 | 5.6 | 0.35 | −27% to 59% | No |
| Treasury auction | 58 | 5.5 | 0.33 | −3% to 54% | No |
| PCE / personal income | 9 | 5.1 | 0.20 | −113% to 56% | No |
| CPI | 16 | 4.8 | 0.11 | −90% to 48% | No |
| GDP | 23 | 2.9 | 0.00 | −325% to −61% | No |
| JOLTS | 19 | 4.1 | 0.00 | −93% to 14% | No |
| Jobless claims | 43 | 4.3 | 0.00 | −83% to 26% | No |
| PPI | 9 | 4.1 | 0.00 | −153% to 26% | No |
| Retail sales | 14 | 4.4 | 0.00 | −73% to 25% | No |
| Corporate deal | – | – | ≤ 0.54 | Not measured: size rule, capped at the strongest measured event | |
"Move" is the typical (root-mean-square) daily change on those days. "Clear?" is Yes only when the whole 90% range is above zero, meaning those days were clearly more volatile than ordinary days. A negative estimate means those days were calmer than ordinary days; the prior is then 0. Two years is a short sample: most ranges are wide, and the numbers will update as history grows.
The formula and its assumptions
- Priors for releases, Fed decisions and auctions are measured from stored history before the window: the share of the 10-year's day-to-day variance on that event's days that ordinary days (no scheduled event) do not have, clamped to 0..1 (see the table). A type with too few days keeps a stated fallback. Corporate deals cannot be measured this way yet (too few dated deals), so their prior is a stated rule: 10-year-equivalent size / $20B, capped at the strongest measured event type's prior so an untested rule cannot outrank tested ones by default.
- Fit: a deal's hedging window (launch to pricing) fits a long-end-led rise (1.0; even 0.5; short-led 0.25); the session after pricing and the settlement session fit a long-end-led fall the same way. Jobs, growth and policy news fit a short-end-led move (1.0; even 0.75; long-led 0.5). Inflation news fits a move where breakevens carry at least a third or the short end leads (1.0; otherwise 0.5). Auctions fit a rise into the auction (1.0 if the matching end led, 0.5 otherwise). A move within ±0.5 bp is not attributed.
- Each session's absolute 10-year move is split across the candidates active that day in proportion to prior × fit; whatever their weights do not cover is unexplained.
What this ranking cannot tell you
- Deals come from SEC EDGAR pricing filings (registered term sheets; 144A press releases where readable) plus the curated ledger; deals announced only elsewhere are missed.
- Scheduled events covered: FOMC decisions; CPI, PPI and PCE; the jobs report, JOLTS and weekly jobless claims; GDP and retail sales; 2- to 30-year Treasury auctions. Unscheduled news (speeches, geopolitics, other countries' markets) is not covered.
- Passing checks means the timing and pattern are consistent with a candidate, not that it caused the move.
- Hedge trades are not observable in public data, so a deal can only ever be a consistent candidate, never a confirmed cause.
What did other markets do?
Same sessions. 10Y = 10-year yield, bp. S&P = S&P 500, %. HY and IG = high-yield and investment-grade credit spreads, bp (wider = more worried). USD = Fed broad dollar index, %. An asterisk marks a move bigger than that market's usual day (S&P 500 ±1.0%; High-yield spread ±7.1 bp; Investment-grade spread ±1.4 bp; Broad dollar ±0.3%). The dollar index is published weekly; it currently runs through Oct 9. Observation
| Date | 10Y | S&P | HY | IG | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | −6 | −0.5% | +6 | 0 | +0.2% |
| Oct 9 | +2 | +0.6% | −4 | +1 | +0.1% |
| Oct 13 | −3 | 0.0% | +5 | 0 | pending |
| Oct 14 | −2 | −1.1%* | +9* | +1 | pending |
| Oct 15 | −9 | +0.3% | −2 | 0 | pending |
- Oct 8: Stocks, credit and the dollar were within their usual daily range; the move looks rates-specific.
- Oct 9: Stocks, credit and the dollar were within their usual daily range; the move looks rates-specific.
- Oct 13: Stocks, credit and the dollar were within their usual daily range; the move looks rates-specific.
- Oct 14: Consistent with a flight to safety: yields fell while stocks fell and high-yield spreads widened more than usual.
- Oct 15: Stocks, credit and the dollar were within their usual daily range; the move looks rates-specific.
A pattern here is consistent with a story (for example a flight to safety), not evidence of who traded or why. Source: FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices, ICE Data Indices, Federal Reserve H.10).
X take
10Y Treasury 5.10% (Oct 15), above 97% of closes in 2 yrs. 5 days: −18bp net on 22bp of back-and-forth. Real yield −14bp, inflation expectations −4bp. Top fit: CPI, ~1% of the movement. 98% unexplained by the calendar. Fit, not proof. https://chrisrileyy91-gif.github.io/treasury-flow-radar/
Post on X 258 of 280 characters
Written automatically from the numbers on this page, every run. Every figure is the page's own; the driver is the formula's best fit (an inference), never a confirmed cause. Nothing here is a trading signal. Inference
Through which channel?
Over the last 5 sessions the 10-year fell 18 bp: real yield −14 bp, inflation breakeven −4 bp. Most of the move came through the real yield. The curve moved as a bull flattener, led by the long end (2-year 0 bp, 30-year −24 bp). Calculation
| Component | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|
| 10-year (nominal) | −9 | −18 |
| Real yield (TIPS) | −6 | −14 |
| Inflation breakeven | −3 | −4 |
Curve shape (2-year vs 30-year): bull flattener over 1 day, bull flattener over 5 days.
Term premium (Federal Reserve model estimate, 10-year zero-coupon): 1.07% on Oct 9, 2026, −1 bp over its last 5 published sessions. It is published about a week late, so it cannot yet speak to the latest sessions. Calculation
What these components can and cannot tell you
Mechanism A rise in the real yield reflects higher expected real policy rates or a higher term premium. A rise in breakevens reflects more inflation compensation, which also carries an inflation-risk premium and TIPS liquidity effects. Pressure from Treasury supply or hedging flows would be expected to show up mainly in the real yield and the term premium, concentrated at the long end; a move led by the 2-year points more toward policy expectations.
Hypothesis These are possible explanations, not findings. A split of the move says which channel moved, not why it moved.
| Maturity | Yield | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year | 4.77% | −5 | 0 | +3 |
| 5-year | 4.91% | −9 | −12 | +5 |
| 7-year | 5.00% | −9 | −15 | +6 |
| 10-year | 5.10% | −9 | −18 | +9 |
| 30-year | 5.43% | −9 | −24 | +8 |
10-year minus 2-year: +33 bp on Oct 15, 2026, −4 bp on the day.
Source: FRED constant-maturity yields, end of day. Market-closed dates are skipped, never filled. Fact
Dealer positioning
$444.7B net position in nominal Treasuries, as of Oct 7, 2026. +$12.7B from $432.0B the week before. Fact
This is the aggregate of all primary dealers (long minus short, excluding TIPS), reported weekly by the New York Fed. Dealers hold inventory to make markets for customers, so a large position is a measure of balance-sheet use, not a directional bet.
Source: NY Fed Primary Dealer Statistics, series PDPOSGST-TOT. Exact publication time is not supplied.
Futures positioning
Net futures contracts by trader group. Report date Oct 13, 2026. Fact Calculation
In each cell the large number is the group's net position (contracts long minus short; a minus sign means net short). The small "wk" number underneath is how much that net position changed from the prior week. Contract counts are not comparable across rows: a 2-year contract carries far less rate risk than a Bond contract.
No unusual dealer move this week: every contract's weekly change was within 2 standard deviations of its history. Calculation
| Contract | Dealers | Asset mgrs | Lev. funds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year | −481.7K+26.7K wk | +1.80M+116.8K wk | −1.37M−109.9K wk |
| 5-year | −918.0K−82.2K wk | +2.98M+70.7K wk | −2.10M+23.2K wk |
| 10-year | −632.8K+9.2K wk | +2.90M+70.4K wk | −2.21M−66.2K wk |
| Ultra 10 | −321.2K+23.2K wk | +797.5K+16.8K wk | −335.9K−16.8K wk |
| Bond | −179.3K+13.4K wk | +391.5K−14.1K wk | −154.0K+35.7K wk |
Long, short, and spreading for every trader group
| Contract | Group | Long | Short | Spreading | Net | Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year | Asset managers | 2.53M | 737.1K | 530.1K | +1.80M | +116.8K |
| 2-year | Dealers | 99.7K | 581.4K | 20.7K | −481.7K | +26.7K |
| 2-year | Leveraged funds | 715.3K | 2.08M | 145.2K | −1.37M | −109.9K |
| 2-year | Nonreportable | 209.3K | 174.1K | Unknown | +35.2K | −7.9K |
| 2-year | Other reportables | 300.7K | 282.6K | 177 | +18.1K | −25.7K |
| 5-year | Asset managers | 4.26M | 1.28M | 1.01M | +2.98M | +70.7K |
| 5-year | Dealers | 82.2K | 1.00M | 25.1K | −918.0K | −82.2K |
| 5-year | Leveraged funds | 533.6K | 2.64M | 285.2K | −2.10M | +23.2K |
| 5-year | Nonreportable | 414.0K | 385.0K | Unknown | +29.0K | +21.7K |
| 5-year | Other reportables | 261.8K | 253.3K | 2.5K | +8.5K | −33.4K |
| 10-year | Asset managers | 3.67M | 774.2K | 716.6K | +2.90M | +70.4K |
| 10-year | Dealers | 109.7K | 742.5K | 22.3K | −632.8K | +9.2K |
| 10-year | Leveraged funds | 489.4K | 2.70M | 146.8K | −2.21M | −66.2K |
| 10-year | Nonreportable | 429.0K | 383.5K | Unknown | +45.5K | +19.1K |
| 10-year | Other reportables | 232.8K | 338.2K | 75 | −105.3K | −32.6K |
| Ultra 10 | Asset managers | 1.34M | 544.6K | 623.2K | +797.5K | +16.8K |
| Ultra 10 | Dealers | 75.8K | 397.0K | 12.9K | −321.2K | +23.2K |
| Ultra 10 | Leveraged funds | 125.8K | 461.7K | 39.6K | −335.9K | −16.8K |
| Ultra 10 | Nonreportable | 239.4K | 301.9K | Unknown | −62.5K | −960 |
| Ultra 10 | Other reportables | 184.9K | 262.9K | 0 | −78.0K | −22.2K |
| Bond | Asset managers | 1.07M | 681.2K | 221.0K | +391.5K | −14.1K |
| Bond | Dealers | 43.5K | 222.8K | 54.9K | −179.3K | +13.4K |
| Bond | Leveraged funds | 173.2K | 327.2K | 25.6K | −154.0K | +35.7K |
| Bond | Nonreportable | 215.8K | 166.8K | Unknown | +49.0K | −22.1K |
| Bond | Other reportables | 41.5K | 148.7K | 1.4K | −107.2K | −12.9K |
These are positioning observations, not predictions. Dealers are often net short futures while holding cash Treasuries, and asset managers' long futures commonly reflect duration exposure. A group being long or short does not by itself say where yields will go.
Source: CFTC Traders in Financial Futures, futures only. Positions as of Tuesday, usually released Friday.
Basis-trade setup
Large leveraged-fund short, below the crowded line Observation
- ·Crowded: no
- ·Funding tightening: no, SOFR at or below IORB
- ·Volatility elevated: no
Mechanism Leveraged funds commonly sell futures against repo-financed cash Treasuries and earn the gap. That works while funding is cheap and stable. If repo rates jump, margins rise, or volatility spikes, the positions can unwind together: cash bonds are sold and futures bought back, which drains Treasury liquidity. This panel measures how large the position is and whether funding and volatility are moving against it. It does not say when, or whether, an unwind happens, and it says nothing about the direction of yields.
Leveraged-fund futures position
−5.18M 10-year-note equivalents, −68.8K on the week, as of Oct 13, 2026. That ranks in the 79th percentile of 552 stored weeks since Mar 8, 2016 (a larger short than 79% of them). Share of open interest: 25.6% (69th percentile). Estimate Calculation
| Contract | Lev. fund net | Week | Short % of OI | Short pctile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year | −1.37M | −109.9K | 30.0 | 84th |
| 5-year | −2.10M | +23.2K | 30.6 | 88th |
| 10-year | −2.21M | −66.2K | 37.9 | 98th |
| Ultra 10 | −335.9K | −16.8K | 12.7 | 90th |
| Bond | −154.0K | +35.7K | 8.3 | 65th |
Funding
SOFR 3.89% vs IORB 3.90% on Oct 15, 2026: −1 bp. 10-session median −2 bp (85th percentile). The 99th-percentile repo rate is +7 bp versus IORB (Oct 15). Calculation
Rate volatility
5.7 bp/day over 20 sessions to Oct 15, 2026 (70th percentile). Realized, not the MOVE index. Calculation
Rules, method, and limits
- Crowded: 10y-equivalent leveraged-fund net short at or above the 80th percentile of at least 52 stored weekly reports.
- Funding tightening: 10-session median of SOFR minus IORB above zero.
- Volatility elevated: 20-session realized 10-year volatility at or above the 80th percentile of at least 120 sessions.
- These thresholds are display rules, not calibrated probabilities.
- 10-year equivalents weight each contract by an estimated DV01: cheapest-to-deliver proxied by the shortest note in the CME deliverable basket, priced as a par bond off the stored constant-maturity curve, divided by its 6% conversion factor. Expect errors of roughly 10–20% per contract versus vendor figures. Per-contract rows use raw contracts and do not depend on this estimate.
- Positioning is dated to the Tuesday CFTC report date; funding and volatility are their own latest dates; nothing is forward-filled.
- Futures leg only: cash Treasury and repo legs of any basis trade are not observed. Percentiles rank against stored history only, which grows with ingestion. Implied rate volatility (MOVE) is licensed by ICE and not ingested.
- A percentile only means something against the history behind it. If that history is short or covers an unusual period, a low rank can still be a large position in absolute terms.
- The 10-year-equivalent total is computed only for weeks in which all five contracts reported, so its history starts when the Ultra 10-year contract began trading (2016). Per-contract ranks for the other four contracts reach back further.
Sources: CFTC Traders in Financial Futures (futures only); FRED SOFR, SOFR99 (NY Fed) and IORB (Board of Governors); FRED DGS2/5/7/10/30; CME Group contract specifications.
Treasury supply
Most recent coupon auctions (2- to 30-year notes and bonds). Fact
| Date | Security | Size | Cover | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | 7-Year Note | $44.0B | 2.42 | 5.08% |
| Sep 23 | 5-Year Note | $70.0B | 2.21 | 5.03% |
| Sep 22 | 2-Year Note | $69.0B | 2.63 | 4.79% |
| Aug 27 | 7-Year Note | $44.0B | 2.50 | 4.51% |
| Aug 26 | 5-Year Note | $70.0B | 2.37 | 4.39% |
| Aug 25 | 2-Year Note | $69.0B | 2.60 | 4.20% |
| Aug 19 | 20-Year Bond | $16.0B | 2.53 | 5.20% |
| Aug 13 | 30-Year Bond | $25.0B | 2.39 | 5.22% |
Source: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data auctions dataset. Bills, TIPS, and floating-rate notes are not included.
What evidence is missing?
Gaps are shown on purpose. An empty panel here means the system cannot see that part of the market, not that nothing happened there.
Not needed: Treasury futures prices
Futures are priced off the same Treasuries whose official daily yields are already stored, so they would add little at a daily frequency. Their intraday prices and volume would add timing detail, but they are licensed exchange data. Futures positioning is covered by the CFTC panel.
Rate-lock hypothesis: what can be tested today
Have
- Corporate issuance event feed
- Deal size
- Maturity/duration
- Pricing date
- Settlement date
- Treasury yield event data
- Dealer positioning
- CFTC positioning
- Cross-market confirmation
- Post-settlement Treasury response (partial)
Missing
- None
Every input the rate-lock checks use is now stored. What stays invisible in public data is the hedging itself: the Treasury sales and swaps that issuers and their banks do are not reported. Each deal can now be checked one at a time. Testing whether large deals systematically coincide with pre-pricing Treasury pressure and a later reversal needs many more dated deals than the few weeks of SEC filings stored so far. Hypothesis
Large 10-year moves
Sessions where the 10-year yield moved at least 5 bp from the previous session. Showing the most recent 20 of 166 detected events. Open one to see the curve around it. Observation
Oct 15, 202610y −9 bp2y −5 bp
| T | Date | 2y | 5y | 7y | 10y | 30y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T−5 | Oct 7 | −5 | +3 | +6 | +9 | +15 |
| T−4 | Oct 8 | −7 | −1 | +2 | +3 | +8 |
| T−3 | Oct 9 | −2 | +2 | +4 | +5 | +8 |
| T−2 | Oct 13 | −3 | 0 | +2 | +2 | +4 |
| T−1 | Oct 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T0 | Oct 15 | −5 | −9 | −9 | −9 | −9 |
10-year: −9 bp from T−5 to T−1, −9 bp on T0, Unknown from T0 to T+5. Calculation
On the day: real yield −6 bp, breakeven −3 bp, term premium not published for this date. Curve: bull flattener. Calculation
Nearby context: dealer positions as of Oct 7, 2026; CFTC report of Oct 13, 2026.
Other markets that day: S&P +0.3%, HY −2 bp, IG 0 bp (* = bigger than a usual day). Stocks, credit and the dollar were within their usual daily range; the move looks rates-specific. Observation
Oct 8, 202610y −6 bp2y −2 bp
| T | Date | 2y | 5y | 7y | 10y | 30y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T−5 | Oct 1 | +1 | −2 | −3 | −4 | −6 |
| T−4 | Oct 2 | +6 | +3 | +2 | 0 | −4 |
| T−3 | Oct 5 | +7 | +3 | +4 | +3 | −1 |
| T−2 | Oct 6 | +2 | 0 | 0 | −1 | −3 |
| T−1 | Oct 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T0 | Oct 8 | −2 | −4 | −4 | −6 | −7 |
| T+1 | Oct 9 | +3 | −1 | −2 | −4 | −7 |
| T+2 | Oct 13 | +2 | −3 | −4 | −7 | −11 |
| T+3 | Oct 14 | +5 | −3 | −6 | −9 | −15 |
| T+4 | Oct 15 | 0 | −12 | −15 | −18 | −24 |
10-year: +4 bp from T−5 to T−1, −6 bp on T0, Unknown from T0 to T+5. Calculation
On the day: real yield −5 bp, breakeven −1 bp, term premium −2 bp. Curve: bull flattener. Calculation
Nearby context: dealer positions as of Oct 7, 2026; CFTC report of Oct 6, 2026.
Other markets that day: S&P −0.5%, HY +6 bp, IG 0 bp, USD +0.2% (* = bigger than a usual day). Stocks, credit and the dollar were within their usual daily range; the move looks rates-specific. Observation
Oct 1, 202610y −5 bp2y −10 bp
| T | Date | 2y | 5y | 7y | 10y | 30y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T−5 | Sep 24 | −1 | −6 | −9 | −11 | −17 |
| T−4 | Sep 25 | −7 | −11 | −13 | −12 | −15 |
| T−3 | Sep 28 | +4 | −3 | −4 | −5 | −8 |
| T−2 | Sep 29 | +1 | −3 | −3 | −3 | −5 |
| T−1 | Sep 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T0 | Oct 1 | −10 | −8 | −7 | −5 | −3 |
| T+1 | Oct 2 | −5 | −3 | −2 | −1 | −1 |
| T+2 | Oct 5 | −4 | −3 | 0 | +2 | +2 |
| T+3 | Oct 6 | −9 | −6 | −4 | −2 | 0 |
| T+4 | Oct 7 | −11 | −6 | −4 | −1 | +3 |
| T+5 | Oct 8 | −13 | −10 | −8 | −7 | −4 |
10-year: +11 bp from T−5 to T−1, −5 bp on T0, −2 bp from T0 to T+5. Calculation
On the day: real yield −5 bp, breakeven 0 bp, term premium −1 bp. Curve: bull steepener. Calculation
Nearby context: dealer positions as of Sep 30, 2026; CFTC report of Sep 29, 2026.
Other markets that day: S&P +0.2%, HY +12 bp*, IG +2 bp*, USD +0.7%* (* = bigger than a usual day). Unusual moves elsewhere: high-yield spreads widened 12 bp; investment-grade spreads widened 2 bp; the dollar rose 0.7%. Not a clean flight-to-safety or risk-appetite pattern. Observation
Sep 28, 202610y +7 bp2y +11 bp
| T | Date | 2y | 5y | 7y | 10y | 30y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T−5 | Sep 21 | −5 | −15 | −17 | −21 | −20 |
| T−4 | Sep 22 | −10 | −15 | −17 | −21 | −20 |
| T−3 | Sep 23 | +4 | +1 | −1 | −6 | −9 |
| T−2 | Sep 24 | +6 | +5 | +4 | +1 | −2 |
| T−1 | Sep 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T0 | Sep 28 | +11 | +8 | +9 | +7 | +7 |
| T+1 | Sep 29 | +8 | +8 | +10 | +9 | +10 |
| T+2 | Sep 30 | +7 | +11 | +13 | +12 | +15 |
| T+3 | Oct 1 | −3 | +3 | +6 | +7 | +12 |
| T+4 | Oct 2 | +2 | +8 | +11 | +11 | +14 |
| T+5 | Oct 5 | +3 | +8 | +13 | +14 | +17 |
10-year: +21 bp from T−5 to T−1, +7 bp on T0, +7 bp from T0 to T+5. Calculation
On the day: real yield +7 bp, breakeven 0 bp, term premium +3 bp. Curve: bear flattener. Calculation
Nearby context: dealer positions as of Sep 23, 2026; CFTC report of Sep 22, 2026.
Other markets that day: S&P −0.8%, HY +9 bp*, IG +2 bp*, USD +0.3%* (* = bigger than a usual day). Unusual moves elsewhere: high-yield spreads widened 9 bp; investment-grade spreads widened 2 bp; the dollar rose 0.3%. Not a clean flight-to-safety or risk-appetite pattern. Observation
Sep 24, 202610y +7 bp2y +2 bp
| T | Date | 2y | 5y | 7y | 10y | 30y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T−5 | Sep 17 | −18 | −21 | −19 | −17 | −11 |
| T−4 | Sep 18 | −9 | −13 | −12 | −10 | −6 |
| T−3 | Sep 21 | −9 | −16 | −16 | −15 | −11 |
| T−2 | Sep 22 | −14 | −16 | −16 | −15 | −11 |
| T−1 | Sep 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T0 | Sep 24 | +2 | +4 | +5 | +7 | +7 |
| T+1 | Sep 25 | −4 | −1 | +1 | +6 | +9 |
| T+2 | Sep 28 | +7 | +7 | +10 | +13 | +16 |
| T+3 | Sep 29 | +4 | +7 | +11 | +15 | +19 |
| T+4 | Sep 30 | +3 | +10 | +14 | +18 | +24 |
| T+5 | Oct 1 | −7 | +2 | +7 | +13 | +21 |
10-year: +17 bp from T−5 to T−1, +7 bp on T0, +6 bp from T0 to T+5. Calculation
On the day: real yield +9 bp, breakeven −2 bp, term premium +3 bp. Curve: bear steepener. Calculation
Nearby context: dealer positions as of Sep 23, 2026; CFTC report of Sep 22, 2026. Auctions within 3 days: 2-Year Note on Sep 22, 5-Year Note on Sep 23, 7-Year Note on Sep 24.
Other markets that day: S&P 0.0%, HY +7 bp, IG +2 bp*, USD +0.4%* (* = bigger than a usual day). Unusual moves elsewhere: investment-grade spreads widened 2 bp; the dollar rose 0.4%. Not a clean flight-to-safety or risk-appetite pattern. Observation
Sep 23, 202610y +15 bp2y +14 bp
| T | Date | 2y | 5y | 7y | 10y | 30y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T−5 | Sep 16 | +3 | +3 | +5 | +5 | +6 |
| T−4 | Sep 17 | −4 | −5 | −3 | −2 | 0 |
| T−3 | Sep 18 | +5 | +3 | +4 | +5 | +5 |
| T−2 | Sep 21 | +5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T−1 | Sep 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T0 | Sep 23 | +14 | +16 | +16 | +15 | +11 |
| T+1 | Sep 24 | +16 | +20 | +21 | +22 | +18 |
| T+2 | Sep 25 | +10 | +15 | +17 | +21 | +20 |
| T+3 | Sep 28 | +21 | +23 | +26 | +28 | +27 |
| T+4 | Sep 29 | +18 | +23 | +27 | +30 | +30 |
| T+5 | Sep 30 | +17 | +26 | +30 | +33 | +35 |
10-year: −5 bp from T−5 to T−1, +15 bp on T0, +18 bp from T0 to T+5. Calculation
On the day: real yield +13 bp, breakeven +2 bp, term premium +6 bp. Curve: bear flattener. Calculation
Nearby context: dealer positions as of Sep 23, 2026; CFTC report of Sep 22, 2026. Auctions within 3 days: 2-Year Note on Sep 22, 5-Year Note on Sep 23, 7-Year Note on Sep 24.
Other markets that day: S&P −0.8%, HY +5 bp, IG 0 bp, USD +0.4%* (* = bigger than a usual day). Unusual moves elsewhere: the dollar rose 0.4%. Not a clean flight-to-safety or risk-appetite pattern. Observation
Sep 21, 202610y −5 bp2y 0 bp
| T | Date | 2y | 5y | 7y | 10y | 30y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T−5 | Sep 14 | −11 | −6 | −5 | −4 | 0 |
| T−4 | Sep 15 | −9 | −3 | −2 | −1 | +2 |
| T−3 | Sep 16 | −2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| T−2 | Sep 17 | −9 | −8 | −7 | −7 | −5 |
| T−1 | Sep 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T0 | Sep 21 | 0 | −3 | −4 | −5 | −5 |
| T+1 | Sep 22 | −5 | −3 | −4 | −5 | −5 |
| T+2 | Sep 23 | +9 | +13 | +12 | +10 | +6 |
| T+3 | Sep 24 | +11 | +17 | +17 | +17 | +13 |
| T+4 | Sep 25 | +5 | +12 | +13 | +16 | +15 |
| T+5 | Sep 28 | +16 | +20 | +22 | +23 | +22 |
10-year: +4 bp from T−5 to T−1, −5 bp on T0, +28 bp from T0 to T+5. Calculation
On the day: real yield −6 bp, breakeven +1 bp, term premium −2 bp. Curve: bull flattener. Calculation
Nearby context: dealer positions as of Sep 16, 2026; CFTC report of Sep 15, 2026. Auctions within 3 days: 2-Year Note on Sep 22, 5-Year Note on Sep 23, 7-Year Note on Sep 24.
Other markets that day: S&P +1.5%*, HY −2 bp, IG 0 bp, USD −0.1% (* = bigger than a usual day). Unusual moves elsewhere: stocks rose 1.5%. Not a clean flight-to-safety or risk-appetite pattern. Observation
Sep 18, 202610y +7 bp2y +9 bp
| T | Date | 2y | 5y | 7y | 10y | 30y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T−5 | Sep 11 | −4 | 0 | +1 | +2 | +6 |
| T−4 | Sep 14 | −2 | +2 | +2 | +3 | +5 |
| T−3 | Sep 15 | 0 | +5 | +5 | +6 | +7 |
| T−2 | Sep 16 | +7 | +8 | +8 | +7 | +6 |
| T−1 | Sep 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T0 | Sep 18 | +9 | +8 | +7 | +7 | +5 |
| T+1 | Sep 21 | +9 | +5 | +3 | +2 | 0 |
| T+2 | Sep 22 | +4 | +5 | +3 | +2 | 0 |
| T+3 | Sep 23 | +18 | +21 | +19 | +17 | +11 |
| T+4 | Sep 24 | +20 | +25 | +24 | +24 | +18 |
| T+5 | Sep 25 | +14 | +20 | +20 | +23 | +20 |
10-year: −2 bp from T−5 to T−1, +7 bp on T0, +16 bp from T0 to T+5. Calculation
On the day: real yield +7 bp, breakeven 0 bp, term premium +2 bp. Curve: bear flattener. Calculation
Nearby context: dealer positions as of Sep 16, 2026; CFTC report of Sep 15, 2026.
Other markets that day: S&P +0.2%, HY −2 bp, IG −1 bp, USD +0.1% (* = bigger than a usual day). Stocks, credit and the dollar were within their usual daily range; the move looks rates-specific. Observation
Sep 17, 202610y −7 bp2y −7 bp
| T | Date | 2y | 5y | 7y | 10y | 30y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T−5 | Sep 10 | −18 | −11 | −10 | −6 | +2 |
| T−4 | Sep 11 | −11 | −8 | −7 | −5 | 0 |
| T−3 | Sep 14 | −9 | −6 | −6 | −4 | −1 |
| T−2 | Sep 15 | −7 | −3 | −3 | −1 | +1 |
| T−1 | Sep 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T0 | Sep 17 | −7 | −8 | −8 | −7 | −6 |
| T+1 | Sep 18 | +2 | 0 | −1 | 0 | −1 |
| T+2 | Sep 21 | +2 | −3 | −5 | −5 | −6 |
| T+3 | Sep 22 | −3 | −3 | −5 | −5 | −6 |
| T+4 | Sep 23 | +11 | +13 | +11 | +10 | +5 |
| T+5 | Sep 24 | +13 | +17 | +16 | +17 | +12 |
10-year: +6 bp from T−5 to T−1, −7 bp on T0, +24 bp from T0 to T+5. Calculation
On the day: real yield −7 bp, breakeven 0 bp, term premium −3 bp. Curve: bull steepener. Calculation
Nearby context: dealer positions as of Sep 16, 2026; CFTC report of Sep 15, 2026.
Other markets that day: S&P +1.1%*, HY 0 bp, IG 0 bp, USD +0.4%* (* = bigger than a usual day). Unusual moves elsewhere: stocks rose 1.1%; the dollar rose 0.4%. Not a clean flight-to-safety or risk-appetite pattern. Observation
Sep 10, 202610y +12 bp2y +13 bp
| T | Date | 2y | 5y | 7y | 10y | 30y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T−5 | Sep 2 | −4 | −7 | −5 | −4 | −1 |
| T−4 | Sep 3 | −9 | −9 | −8 | −6 | −3 |
| T−3 | Sep 4 | −6 | −7 | −6 | −5 | −4 |
| T−2 | Sep 8 | −4 | −4 | −3 | −3 | −3 |
| T−1 | Sep 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T0 | Sep 10 | +13 | +14 | +13 | +12 | +9 |
| T+1 | Sep 11 | +20 | +17 | +16 | +13 | +7 |
| T+2 | Sep 14 | +22 | +19 | +17 | +14 | +6 |
| T+3 | Sep 15 | +24 | +22 | +20 | +17 | +8 |
| T+4 | Sep 16 | +31 | +25 | +23 | +18 | +7 |
| T+5 | Sep 17 | +24 | +17 | +15 | +11 | +1 |
10-year: +4 bp from T−5 to T−1, +12 bp on T0, −1 bp from T0 to T+5. Calculation
On the day: real yield +9 bp, breakeven +3 bp, term premium +5 bp. Curve: bear flattener. Calculation
Nearby context: dealer positions as of Sep 9, 2026; CFTC report of Sep 8, 2026.
Other markets that day: S&P −0.6%, HY −1 bp, IG −1 bp, USD +0.2% (* = bigger than a usual day). Stocks, credit and the dollar were within their usual daily range; the move looks rates-specific. Observation
Aug 28, 202610y +6 bp2y +14 bp
| T | Date | 2y | 5y | 7y | 10y | 30y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T−5 | Aug 21 | +4 | +5 | +5 | +7 | +8 |
| T−4 | Aug 24 | +4 | +3 | +3 | +3 | +4 |
| T−3 | Aug 25 | −3 | −3 | −4 | −3 | −2 |
| T−2 | Aug 26 | −1 | −1 | −1 | −1 | −1 |
| T−1 | Aug 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T0 | Aug 28 | +14 | +10 | +7 | +6 | +3 |
| T+1 | Aug 31 | +14 | +11 | +10 | +8 | +6 |
| T+2 | Sep 1 | +19 | +17 | +14 | +12 | +8 |
| T+3 | Sep 2 | +19 | +16 | +14 | +12 | +8 |
| T+4 | Sep 3 | +14 | +14 | +11 | +10 | +6 |
| T+5 | Sep 4 | +17 | +16 | +13 | +11 | +5 |
10-year: −7 bp from T−5 to T−1, +6 bp on T0, +5 bp from T0 to T+5. Calculation
On the day: real yield +8 bp, breakeven −2 bp, term premium +3 bp. Curve: bear flattener. Calculation
Nearby context: dealer positions as of Aug 26, 2026; CFTC report of Aug 25, 2026. Auctions within 3 days: 2-Year Note on Aug 25, 5-Year Note on Aug 26, 7-Year Note on Aug 27.
Other markets that day: S&P −0.2%, HY −3 bp, IG 0 bp, USD +0.3%* (* = bigger than a usual day). Unusual moves elsewhere: the dollar rose 0.3%. Not a clean flight-to-safety or risk-appetite pattern. Observation
Aug 25, 202610y −6 bp2y −7 bp
| T | Date | 2y | 5y | 7y | 10y | 30y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T−5 | Aug 18 | −5 | −4 | −2 | +1 | +5 |
| T−4 | Aug 19 | −5 | −6 | −7 | −5 | −4 |
| T−3 | Aug 20 | −5 | −2 | −2 | −1 | 0 |
| T−2 | Aug 21 | 0 | +2 | +2 | +4 | +4 |
| T−1 | Aug 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T0 | Aug 25 | −7 | −6 | −7 | −6 | −6 |
| T+1 | Aug 26 | −5 | −4 | −4 | −4 | −5 |
| T+2 | Aug 27 | −4 | −3 | −3 | −3 | −4 |
| T+3 | Aug 28 | +10 | +7 | +4 | +3 | −1 |
| T+4 | Aug 31 | +10 | +8 | +7 | +5 | +2 |
| T+5 | Sep 1 | +15 | +14 | +11 | +9 | +4 |
10-year: −1 bp from T−5 to T−1, −6 bp on T0, +15 bp from T0 to T+5. Calculation
On the day: real yield −6 bp, breakeven 0 bp, term premium −3 bp. Curve: bull steepener. Calculation
Nearby context: dealer positions as of Aug 19, 2026; CFTC report of Aug 25, 2026. Auctions within 3 days: 2-Year Note on Aug 25, 5-Year Note on Aug 26, 7-Year Note on Aug 27.
Other markets that day: S&P +0.3%, HY +1 bp, IG 0 bp, USD −0.1% (* = bigger than a usual day). Stocks, credit and the dollar were within their usual daily range; the move looks rates-specific. Observation
Aug 21, 202610y +5 bp2y +5 bp
| T | Date | 2y | 5y | 7y | 10y | 30y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T−5 | Aug 14 | −2 | −3 | −2 | −1 | +2 |
| T−4 | Aug 17 | 0 | −1 | +1 | +3 | +8 |
| T−3 | Aug 18 | 0 | −2 | 0 | +2 | +5 |
| T−2 | Aug 19 | 0 | −4 | −5 | −4 | −4 |
| T−1 | Aug 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T0 | Aug 21 | +5 | +4 | +4 | +5 | +4 |
| T+1 | Aug 24 | +5 | +2 | +2 | +1 | 0 |
| T+2 | Aug 25 | −2 | −4 | −5 | −5 | −6 |
| T+3 | Aug 26 | 0 | −2 | −2 | −3 | −5 |
| T+4 | Aug 27 | +1 | −1 | −1 | −2 | −4 |
| T+5 | Aug 28 | +15 | +9 | +6 | +4 | −1 |
10-year: +1 bp from T−5 to T−1, +5 bp on T0, −1 bp from T0 to T+5. Calculation
On the day: real yield +5 bp, breakeven 0 bp, term premium +2 bp. Curve: bear flattener. Calculation
Nearby context: dealer positions as of Aug 19, 2026; CFTC report of Aug 18, 2026. Auctions within 3 days: 20-Year Bond on Aug 19.
Other markets that day: S&P +0.4%, HY −5 bp, IG −1 bp, USD −0.2% (* = bigger than a usual day). Stocks, credit and the dollar were within their usual daily range; the move looks rates-specific. Observation
Aug 19, 202610y −6 bp2y 0 bp
| T | Date | 2y | 5y | 7y | 10y | 30y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T−5 | Aug 12 | +1 | +1 | −1 | −3 | −4 |
| T−4 | Aug 13 | −4 | −5 | −6 | −8 | −7 |
| T−3 | Aug 14 | −2 | −1 | −2 | −3 | −3 |
| T−2 | Aug 17 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +3 |
| T−1 | Aug 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T0 | Aug 19 | 0 | −2 | −5 | −6 | −9 |
| T+1 | Aug 20 | 0 | +2 | 0 | −2 | −5 |
| T+2 | Aug 21 | +5 | +6 | +4 | +3 | −1 |
| T+3 | Aug 24 | +5 | +4 | +2 | −1 | −5 |
| T+4 | Aug 25 | −2 | −2 | −5 | −7 | −11 |
| T+5 | Aug 26 | 0 | 0 | −2 | −5 | −10 |
10-year: +3 bp from T−5 to T−1, −6 bp on T0, +1 bp from T0 to T+5. Calculation
On the day: real yield −6 bp, breakeven 0 bp, term premium −2 bp. Curve: bull flattener. Calculation
Nearby context: dealer positions as of Aug 19, 2026; CFTC report of Aug 18, 2026. Auctions within 3 days: 20-Year Bond on Aug 19.
Other markets that day: S&P +0.2%, HY −2 bp, IG −1 bp, USD −0.5%* (* = bigger than a usual day). Unusual moves elsewhere: the dollar fell 0.5%. Not a clean flight-to-safety or risk-appetite pattern. Observation
Aug 14, 202610y +5 bp2y +2 bp
| T | Date | 2y | 5y | 7y | 10y | 30y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T−5 | Aug 7 | +4 | +3 | +2 | +2 | −2 |
| T−4 | Aug 10 | +10 | +9 | +9 | +9 | +4 |
| T−3 | Aug 11 | +7 | +7 | +7 | +7 | +3 |
| T−2 | Aug 12 | +5 | +6 | +5 | +5 | +3 |
| T−1 | Aug 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T0 | Aug 14 | +2 | +4 | +4 | +5 | +4 |
| T+1 | Aug 17 | +4 | +6 | +7 | +9 | +10 |
| T+2 | Aug 18 | +4 | +5 | +6 | +8 | +7 |
| T+3 | Aug 19 | +4 | +3 | +1 | +2 | −2 |
| T+4 | Aug 20 | +4 | +7 | +6 | +6 | +2 |
| T+5 | Aug 21 | +9 | +11 | +10 | +11 | +6 |
10-year: −2 bp from T−5 to T−1, +5 bp on T0, +6 bp from T0 to T+5. Calculation
On the day: real yield +2 bp, breakeven +3 bp, term premium +2 bp. Curve: bear steepener. Calculation
Nearby context: dealer positions as of Aug 12, 2026; CFTC report of Aug 11, 2026. Auctions within 3 days: 10-Year Note on Aug 12, 30-Year Bond on Aug 13.
Other markets that day: S&P −0.2%, HY −4 bp, IG +1 bp, USD −0.2% (* = bigger than a usual day). Stocks, credit and the dollar were within their usual daily range; the move looks rates-specific. Observation
Aug 13, 202610y −5 bp2y −5 bp
| T | Date | 2y | 5y | 7y | 10y | 30y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T−5 | Aug 6 | +5 | +2 | +1 | +1 | −2 |
| T−4 | Aug 7 | −1 | −3 | −3 | −3 | −5 |
| T−3 | Aug 10 | +5 | +3 | +4 | +4 | +1 |
| T−2 | Aug 11 | +2 | +1 | +2 | +2 | 0 |
| T−1 | Aug 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T0 | Aug 13 | −5 | −6 | −5 | −5 | −3 |
| T+1 | Aug 14 | −3 | −2 | −1 | 0 | +1 |
| T+2 | Aug 17 | −1 | 0 | +2 | +4 | +7 |
| T+3 | Aug 18 | −1 | −1 | +1 | +3 | +4 |
| T+4 | Aug 19 | −1 | −3 | −4 | −3 | −5 |
| T+5 | Aug 20 | −1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | −1 |
10-year: −1 bp from T−5 to T−1, −5 bp on T0, +6 bp from T0 to T+5. Calculation
On the day: real yield −3 bp, breakeven −2 bp, term premium −2 bp. Curve: bull steepener. Calculation
Nearby context: dealer positions as of Aug 12, 2026; CFTC report of Aug 11, 2026. Auctions within 3 days: 10-Year Note on Aug 12, 30-Year Bond on Aug 13.
Other markets that day: S&P +0.7%, HY 0 bp, IG 0 bp, USD +0.1% (* = bigger than a usual day). Stocks, credit and the dollar were within their usual daily range; the move looks rates-specific. Observation
Aug 10, 202610y +7 bp2y +6 bp
| T | Date | 2y | 5y | 7y | 10y | 30y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T−5 | Aug 3 | +6 | +5 | +5 | +5 | +4 |
| T−4 | Aug 4 | +1 | −2 | −2 | −2 | −1 |
| T−3 | Aug 5 | −1 | −2 | −2 | −2 | −2 |
| T−2 | Aug 6 | +6 | +5 | +4 | +4 | +3 |
| T−1 | Aug 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T0 | Aug 10 | +6 | +6 | +7 | +7 | +6 |
| T+1 | Aug 11 | +3 | +4 | +5 | +5 | +5 |
| T+2 | Aug 12 | +1 | +3 | +3 | +3 | +5 |
| T+3 | Aug 13 | −4 | −3 | −2 | −2 | +2 |
| T+4 | Aug 14 | −2 | +1 | +2 | +3 | +6 |
| T+5 | Aug 17 | 0 | +3 | +5 | +7 | +12 |
10-year: −5 bp from T−5 to T−1, +7 bp on T0, 0 bp from T0 to T+5. Calculation
On the day: real yield +3 bp, breakeven +4 bp, term premium +2 bp. Curve: parallel rise. Calculation
Nearby context: dealer positions as of Aug 5, 2026; CFTC report of Aug 4, 2026. Auctions within 3 days: 10-Year Note on Aug 12, 30-Year Bond on Aug 13.
Other markets that day: S&P −0.1%, HY 0 bp, IG 0 bp, USD 0.0% (* = bigger than a usual day). Stocks, credit and the dollar were within their usual daily range; the move looks rates-specific. Observation
Aug 6, 202610y +6 bp2y +7 bp
| T | Date | 2y | 5y | 7y | 10y | 30y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T−5 | Jul 30 | +5 | +5 | +5 | +5 | +4 |
| T−4 | Jul 31 | +10 | +12 | +12 | +12 | +10 |
| T−3 | Aug 3 | +7 | +7 | +7 | +7 | +6 |
| T−2 | Aug 4 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| T−1 | Aug 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T0 | Aug 6 | +7 | +7 | +6 | +6 | +5 |
| T+1 | Aug 7 | +1 | +2 | +2 | +2 | +2 |
| T+2 | Aug 10 | +7 | +8 | +9 | +9 | +8 |
| T+3 | Aug 11 | +4 | +6 | +7 | +7 | +7 |
| T+4 | Aug 12 | +2 | +5 | +5 | +5 | +7 |
| T+5 | Aug 13 | −3 | −1 | 0 | 0 | +4 |
10-year: −5 bp from T−5 to T−1, +6 bp on T0, −6 bp from T0 to T+5. Calculation
On the day: real yield +2 bp, breakeven +4 bp, term premium +2 bp. Curve: bear flattener. Calculation
Nearby context: dealer positions as of Aug 5, 2026; CFTC report of Aug 4, 2026.
Other markets that day: S&P −0.2%, HY −4 bp, IG 0 bp, USD +0.1% (* = bigger than a usual day). Stocks, credit and the dollar were within their usual daily range; the move looks rates-specific. Observation
Aug 4, 202610y −7 bp2y −5 bp
| T | Date | 2y | 5y | 7y | 10y | 30y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T−5 | Jul 28 | +1 | −5 | −7 | −9 | −14 |
| T−4 | Jul 29 | −3 | −3 | −3 | −3 | −3 |
| T−3 | Jul 30 | −2 | −2 | −2 | −2 | −2 |
| T−2 | Jul 31 | +3 | +5 | +5 | +5 | +4 |
| T−1 | Aug 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T0 | Aug 4 | −5 | −7 | −7 | −7 | −5 |
| T+1 | Aug 5 | −7 | −7 | −7 | −7 | −6 |
| T+2 | Aug 6 | 0 | 0 | −1 | −1 | −1 |
| T+3 | Aug 7 | −6 | −5 | −5 | −5 | −4 |
| T+4 | Aug 10 | 0 | +1 | +2 | +2 | +2 |
| T+5 | Aug 11 | −3 | −1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
10-year: +9 bp from T−5 to T−1, −7 bp on T0, +7 bp from T0 to T+5. Calculation
On the day: real yield −3 bp, breakeven −4 bp, term premium −3 bp. Curve: parallel fall. Calculation
Nearby context: dealer positions as of Jul 29, 2026; CFTC report of Aug 4, 2026.
Other markets that day: S&P +1.8%*, HY −5 bp, IG 0 bp, USD −0.1% (* = bigger than a usual day). Unusual moves elsewhere: stocks rose 1.8%. Not a clean flight-to-safety or risk-appetite pattern. Observation
Aug 3, 202610y −5 bp2y −3 bp
| T | Date | 2y | 5y | 7y | 10y | 30y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T−5 | Jul 27 | +3 | −5 | −7 | −10 | −15 |
| T−4 | Jul 28 | −2 | −10 | −12 | −14 | −18 |
| T−3 | Jul 29 | −6 | −8 | −8 | −8 | −7 |
| T−2 | Jul 30 | −5 | −7 | −7 | −7 | −6 |
| T−1 | Jul 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T0 | Aug 3 | −3 | −5 | −5 | −5 | −4 |
| T+1 | Aug 4 | −8 | −12 | −12 | −12 | −9 |
| T+2 | Aug 5 | −10 | −12 | −12 | −12 | −10 |
| T+3 | Aug 6 | −3 | −5 | −6 | −6 | −5 |
| T+4 | Aug 7 | −9 | −10 | −10 | −10 | −8 |
| T+5 | Aug 10 | −3 | −4 | −3 | −3 | −2 |
10-year: +10 bp from T−5 to T−1, −5 bp on T0, +2 bp from T0 to T+5. Calculation
On the day: real yield −4 bp, breakeven −1 bp, term premium −2 bp. Curve: bull flattener. Calculation
Nearby context: dealer positions as of Jul 29, 2026; CFTC report of Jul 28, 2026.
Other markets that day: S&P +1.5%*, HY −7 bp, IG −1 bp, USD 0.0% (* = bigger than a usual day). Unusual moves elsewhere: stocks rose 1.5%. Not a clean flight-to-safety or risk-appetite pattern. Observation
Timing alone does not establish cause. Weekly dealer and CFTC data are matched to the latest report on or before each date and are never filled forward.
The read
Treasury plumbing is quiet, but the trade is large.
Leveraged funds hold a Treasury futures short of 5.2M 10-year-note equivalents, larger than in most of the stored history, just under the crowded line (79th percentile of 552 weeks), and added 69K of short this week. Calculation
Overnight funding is calm: SOFR trades at or below the Fed's reserve rate (10-session median −2 bp). Calculation
Rate volatility is ordinary: the 10-year yield has moved about 5.7 bp a day over the last 20 sessions (70th percentile). Calculation
The position is larger than in most stored weeks, but calm funding and ordinary volatility mean nothing is forcing it to unwind. Inference
Does this point to Fed buying?
There is no sign of the funding pressure under which the Fed has added reserves by buying Treasury bills. Such purchases support liquidity; they are not QE in the 2020 sense of buying longer-dated bonds to lower yields. Inference
What it means for stocks
On its own, this setup says nothing about where stocks go. It matters for equities mainly if it breaks: a forced unwind of leveraged Treasury positions can drain liquidity and push funds to sell other assets too, as in March 2020. Mechanism
What would change this read
- SOFR moving above IORB on a 10-session median basis (now −2 bp).
- The leveraged-fund short growing past 5.4M 10-year equivalents, the 80th percentile of stored weeks (now 5.2M; peak 7.3M).
- Daily 10-year moves averaging above about 6.7 bp (the 80th percentile).
A rule-based reading of the measurements above. It is not a forecast of yields, stocks, or Fed policy, and not a trading signal. Data as of positioning Oct 13; funding Oct 15; volatility Oct 15.
Sources and freshness
| Source | Latest data | Days old |
|---|---|---|
| Treasury yields (FRED)Retrieved Oct 16, 2026 22:02 UTC | Oct 16, 2026 | 0 |
| Primary dealer positions (NY Fed)Retrieved Oct 15, 2026 22:02 UTC | Oct 7, 2026 | 9 |
| Futures positioning (CFTC)Retrieved Oct 16, 2026 22:03 UTC | Oct 13, 2026 | 3 |
| Treasury auctions (Fiscal Data)Retrieved Oct 6, 2026 23:38 UTC | Sep 24, 2026 | 22 |
| SEC_EDGAR_PRICINGSRetrieved Oct 16, 2026 22:03 UTC | Oct 16, 2026 | 0 |
Observation date is when the market event happened; retrieval is when this system fetched it. The sources do not supply exact publication times, so none are claimed.
How to read this page
- Fact
- A value reported by an identified source.
- Calculation
- Reproducible arithmetic on stated inputs.
- Observation
- A measured pattern, with no claim about its cause.
- Mechanism
- A documented way a market process could work.
- Inference
- An interpretation the evidence supports but does not establish.
- Hypothesis
- A proposed explanation that still has to be tested.
- Co-movement, positioning, and timing do not establish causality.
- Observation-date alignment does not establish publication-time availability or causality.
- Descriptive measurements only; timing and co-occurrence do not establish causality or intent.
- This is a research and measurement tool. It produces no trading signals.